Tight Inventory Accelerates Sales,
Pushes Up Median Sales Price

A fifth straight month of shrinking inventory year-over-year triggered several November records in the 11-year history of the RE/MAX National Housing Report: fewest Days on Market at 49, fewest Months Supply of Inventory at 3.3, and the highest Median Sales Price at $257,000.

In the 54 metro areas covered by the report, November home sales overall averaged 1.0% below November 2018 following significant year-over-year increases in September and October. Thus far, four months of 2019 posted year-over-year sales increases and seven, including November, have seen declines. Three of the monthly declines, however, were less than 2% below 2018 sales levels.

The November Median Sales Price of $257,000 marked a 7.9% year-over-year increase. It was the third-highest year-over-year increase thus far in 2019.  While prices declined month-to-month from June through September, price appreciation began to accelerate in October and the November Median Sales Price topped October by 0.7%. November prices have topped October’s for nine consecutive years, dating back to 2011.

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Sales and Prices Increase,
Inventory Sharply Declines

Home sales, which lagged during the first part of 2019, continued their recent rebound with another strong month in October. October 2019 sales finished 3.9% higher than in October 2018. At the same time, inventory posted a steep 9.0% year-over-year decline across the report’s 54 metro areas, while the Median Sales Price of $254,800 set an October record.

With May, July and September already in the positive column, October became the fourth month of the past six to post a year-over-year increase in sales, which hadn’t happened for nine months prior to May.

Meanwhile, inventory resumed the skid that has dominated the last decade. October’s year-over-year decline of 9.0% was the largest for any month since May 2018. The downturn resulted in October’s Months of Inventory dropping to 3.1 – the lowest October amount in the report’s 11-year history. The 49 Days on Market was the second-lowest figure for October in report history, trailing only 2018’s 48.

The Median Sales Price of $254,800 set an October record for the report and the 8.4% increase year over year was the highest for the month since 2013.

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September Home Sales Post Highest Year-over-Year Gain in Nearly Three Years

While signaling the end of 2019’s peak selling season, September home sales rose 8.1% year-over-year – the largest year-over-year increase since November 2016. Home purchases increased in 47 of the report’s 54 markets, forcing already tight inventory totals to drop 6.1% year-over-year for the biggest decline in over a year.

The year-over-year increase in September 2019 sales was the largest September increase since 2013. This was accompanied by an August-to-September decline of 17.0%, which – while larger than average – was significantly less than the month-to-month drop of 24.4% in September 2018, when sales sharply declined amid an uncertain interest rate environment.

September 2019 marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year inventory decline. That reversed the strongest 9-month-stretch of year-over-year inventory growth – from October 2018 to June 2019 – in report history. Meanwhile, the August-to-September seasonal inventory decline of 1.5% was less than the August-to-September 5-year average drop of 2.3%.

September’s Median Sales Price of $254,500 was a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, which is in line with the year-over-year average gain of 4.9% for 2019’s first nine months.

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Year-Over-Year Home Sales Slip 1.6% After Largest Inventory Decline in 13 Months

August 2019 existing home sales slipped 1.6% from a year ago, despite buyer demand exceeding available housing supply, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. Following July’s year-over-year sales increase of 2.3%, the slight August decline marks the sixth month of 2019 that produced fewer sales than 2018.

Buyer demand outpaced homes listed for sale in August, causing the largest inventory decline in 13 months. An analysis of the report’s 53 metro areas shows August inventory shrank 5.5% year-over-year, the largest drop since 7.8% in July 2018. August’s inventory contraction followed July’s year-over-year inventory decline of 1.5% after nine consecutive months of year-over-year inventory growth. Months Supply of Inventory decreased to 2.8 compared to 2.9 in July 2019 and eclipsed the previous August low in the report’s 11-year history.

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Home Sales Increase 2.4% in July,
Ending Nine Months of Inventory Growth

July home sales bounced back after a sluggish June by increasing 2.4% year over year, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. This was enough to end nine months of year-over-year inventory growth as the number of homes for sale declined 1.4%.

A drop in home sales from June to July is typical in the report’s 53 metro areas. But the 0.2% decline from June to July 2019 was by far the smallest month-over-month decline since July 2013. And while June sales failed to top May for only the second time in the report’s 10-year history, July sales set a report record for the month.

July’s Median Sales Price of $273,000 – while down slightly from June’s all-time report record high – was 9.2% higher than July of 2018. It marked the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year price growth. Home prices have risen, year over year, in 88 of the last 90 months dating back to February 2012.

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June Sales Post Unusual Decline
as Median Price Reaches All-Time High

Typically the strongest month for home sales, June saw closings decline 4.7% from May and 7.8% from June 2018, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. Going in the opposite direction, June’s Median Sales Price of $276,000 was an all-time high in the 10-year history of the report.

June has recorded the most sales each of the last five years (July led 2013 sales). This is only the second June in report history to have fewer sales than May. With sales slowing, June inventory increased 1.3% over June 2018, marking the first year-over-year rise in June inventory in the report’s history. Moreover, inventory grew for the ninth consecutive month, and the report’s 54 metro areas had the most units for sale since August 2016.

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Home Sales Accelerate
While Inventory Hits 34-Month High

May home sales ticked slightly higher year-over-year, ending a 9-month streak of declines, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. At the same time, inventory grew for the eighth consecutive month, representing the most units for sale since August 2016 in the report’s 54 metro areas.

Homes sold quickly, as evident in the Days on Market average of 47 – the second-fastest May average in the 10-year history of the report. And home sales increased 15.3% from April to May – the second-highest April-May jump in report history.

Home sales were up 0.4% over May 2018 – the first year-over-year gain since July 2018. The number of homes for sale increased 4.9% year-over-year to set a report record for the highest May growth. However, based on the pace of home sales, May’s 2.6 Months of Inventory was down compared to April’s 2.8 months and the 2.9 months of May 2018.

The Median Sales Price of $259,500 was up 3.4% year-over-year, representing the lowest May increase since 2011.

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Spring Home Sales Back on Pace as Price Increases Moderate

April home sales finished just 1.1% below a year ago as selling times shortened and tight inventory held steady, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. Meanwhile, April’s median home price of $251,000 in the report’s 54 markets was up a mere 2.1% – the smallest year-over-year April increase in eight years.

April’s year-over-year sales decline of 1.1% marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year decreases, but April’s sales dip was the smallest during that time. At the same time, inventory increased 4.8% and marked the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year growth in number of homes for sale.

Compared to March, home sales in April sped up by a full week, taking an average of 52 days instead of 59. The average in April 2018 was 51 days. The Months Supply of Inventory in April decreased year-over-year from 3.0 to 2.6.

While the March-over-February increase in home sales of 28.8% was the smallest in five years, the April-over-March increase of 11.2% was an April-over-March record for the 10-year history of the report.

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March Sales Signal Slowest Start to Spring Homebuying Since 2014

Kicking off the spring homebuying season, March sales climbed almost 29% over February, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. But this remains the slowest start in five years, with March sales 8.6% lower than March 2018.

March was the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines and the sixth straight month of year-over-year inventory growth, with a 5.3% gain. Housing activity in the report’s 54 markets nationwide also saw the Median Sales price grow by 3.4% year-over-year – notably smaller than the year-over-year increases in February (5.5%) and January (4.6%).  However, the median sales price has risen by more than 3% year-over-year in 17 of the last 18 months.

From 2015 to 2018, the housing market’s spring sprang to life with an increase in sales from February to March averaging 37.0%. March 2019’s month-over-month increase of 28.8% was the smallest since 24.6% in 2014.

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Declining Sales, Growing Inventory Continue to Move in Direction of Buyer’s Market

Riding two trends – declining sales and growing inventory – the U.S. housing market continued to transition from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market in February, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report.

Home sales in the 54-market report have declined year-over-year for seven consecutive months, though February’s downturn of 4.2% was the smallest since the 1.1% drop that started the streak in August 2018. At the same time, inventory grew 5.8% over February of 2018, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth following a decade-long trend of shrinking inventory. The Months Supply of Inventory also grew in February from 3.1 in 2018 to 3.4 this year.

Bucking these trends, the Median Sales Price increased to $240,000, a year-over-year gain of 5.5% and a February record in the 10-year history of the report. That followed January’s upturn of 4.6%.

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