Reduced Inventory Motivates
Increased Home Prices

A slight decrease in interest rates has raised cautious optimism – interest rates had fallen to around 7.2% as of December 1, in comparison to 7.8% in October 2023, and a continuation of that decrease would have a positive impact on the market in general. However, the decline in seasonal inventory continues to drive home prices upward, spurring an increase of 4.6% in prices from November 2022:

• NWMLS brokers reported 4,367 closed sales in November 2023, which is a 16% drop from closed sales in November 2022 (5,194). However, this is a slight improvement from October’s year-over-year change in closed sales, which decreased 18% when compared to October 2022.
• While most counties in the NWMLS report (19 of 26) saw a decrease in the number of homes sold, seven of the counties saw a year-over-year increase, including Grant, Okanogan, Kittitas, Walla Walla, San Juan, Adams and Ferry counties.
• The median sales price increased year-over-year in 21 of the 26 total counties included in the statistical report. Overall, the median price for homes sold in November 2023 was $601,341, up 4.6% when compared to November 2022 ($575,000). The three counties with the highest median priced homes sold were San Juan ($975,000), King ($799,925) and Snohomish ($703,635). The three counties with the lowest median priced homes sold were Grant ($327,999), Ferry ($313,750) and Adams ($221,500).
• When compared to the same month last year, November 2023 experienced a 17% decrease in the number of active property listings on the market. The total volume of homes for sale has continued to decline, with 19 out of 26 counties seeing a year-over-year decrease.

Although the number of sales transactions and housing inventory levels typically drop in the fall and winter months, the expected seasonal slow-down continues to be exacerbated by the high interest rate environment for buyers relying on mortgages.

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Source: NWMLS 12/6/2023

Further increases in interest rates continue to influence the expected seasonal slow-down during fall and winter months:

Most counties covered by NWMLS (24 of 26) saw a decrease in the number of homes sold with an average decline of 18%.  The median price of homes sold declined in 11 out of 26 counties, increased in 14, and remained virtually unchanged* in one county relative to October 2022. (*Unchanged = less than 0.5 percent change in median price)

The three counties with the highest median priced homes sold were San Juan County ($1,150,000), King County ($800,000) and Snohomish County ($700,322); the three counties with the lowest median priced homes sold were Grays Harbor ($325,000), Ferry ($177,500), and Columbia ($110,000).

The volume of homes on the market has continued to decline throughout Washington with 20 out of 26 counties seeing a year over year decrease in the number of homes on the market. When compared to the same month last year, October 2023 experienced a 20% decrease in active property listings on the market in Washington counties covered by the NWMLS.

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Source: NWMLS 11/6/2023

As we head into the fall season, the number of transactions in Washington counties continues to decline, with limited growth in year-over-year median prices.

• When compared to the same month last year, September 2023 experienced a -20% change in active property listings on the market in Washington counties covered by the NWMLS.
• Most counties covered by the NWMLS (23 of 26) saw a decrease in the number of homes sold, with changes ranging from -2% to -50% year over year with an average decline of -24% and one county going unchanged.
• The median price of homes sold increased in 15 out of 26 counties, declined in 9 counties, increased in 15 and remained unchanged in 2 counties relative to September 2022.

“The real estate market typically slows down in the fall and winter months,” said Mason Virant, associate director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at The University of Washington. “However, the high-interest rate environment has further decreased the purchasing power of prospective buyers leading to a continued decline in year over year transaction volume with overall median prices stagnating.”

While continued mortgage rate increases will make additional home price gains much more challenging, the demand for listings will have sellers thinking positively about their options by next year.

“The combination of low inventories and pent-up demand suggest that home price pressures will continue to mount and drive home prices up some 5% by next September,” said Selma Hepp, executive and chief economist with CoreLogic.

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Source: NWMLS 10/5/2023

Prices on homes that sold during August rose 2.5% from a year ago, marking the first year-over-year (YOY) increase since January, according to a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The median price of $615,000 for 6,734 closed sales across 26 counties matched July’s figure.

For other key metrics on August activity, including new and active listings, pending sales, and closed sales, the YOY comparisons showed declines.

Brokers added 8,152 new listings of single family homes and condominiums last month, down from 9,914 for August 2022, a drop of nearly 17.8%. Last month’s systemwide tally of new listings was the smallest monthly total since April.

NWMLS members reported 7,189 pending sales during August, which was the lowest level since April’s total of 7,137, and down nearly 25% from the year ago figure of 9,552.

Brokers and other industry-watchers point to upticks in mortgage rates as the culprit for declining sales. 

The average interest rate on a 30-year home loan reached 7.23% as of August 24, according to Freddie Mac. That is the highest rate since 2001, but it subsequently dropped to 7.12% for the week ending September 7. Along with forcing buyers to sit on the sidelines, the escalating rates are a deterrent to would-be sellers who bought or refinanced home in recent years and don’t want to swap their 3% rate for a 7% mortgage.

Despite slower activity, supply remained constrained with only 1.71 months of inventory in the MLS database. That’s down from both a year ago when there was 1.84 months of supply, and from last month when the figure was 1.76.

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Source: NWMLS 9/8/2023

The Northwest MLS statistics summarizing July activity for 26 counties in the report showed declines in listings, pending sales, closed sales and prices when compared to 12 months ago. The same metrics, which include single family homes and condominiums, were also down from June, with the exception of total active listings and months of inventory. Both showed slight month-over-month improvement.

Buyers could choose from 10,982 active listings at the end of July, a gain of 375 properties compared to June’s total. Last month’s inventory dropped 28.6% from the year-ago selection of 15,381 properties. Of the selection, 8,205 listings were added system-wide during July.

A slower pace of sales contributed to a modest uptick in months of supply, rising from 1.55 months in June to 1.76 months in July; a year ago there was 2.01 months of supply. Still, with the industry using 4-to-6 months as the indicator of a balanced market, 20 of the 26 counties fell below that mark. The six counties that had at least four months of supply were outside the Puget Sound urban areas.

Last week’s rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.9%, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, it was 4.99% and two years ago it was 2.77%.

The jump in mortgage rates combined with a lack of choices for buyers has put a drag on sales, Deely remarked. “Adding to buyers’ hesitancy is the record-breaking price growth in 2021 and 2022. Cost pressures are impacting affordability, and it is unlikely to significantly improve in the near future.” 

Sellers of 7,570 properties accepted offers during July. That volume of pending sales was down about 13.7% from the year ago total of 8,775 and dropped 2.4% from June’s figure (7,759).

Within King County, pending sales surpassed last year’s numbers in several sub-markets including Southeast Seattle, SODO/Beacon Hill, Ballard/Green Lake, and North Seattle. On the Eastside, three areas had more pending sales than a year ago: the area south of I-90, Bellevue – West of I-405, and Kirkland. Median sales prices in these areas exceeded $1.4 million.

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Source: NWMLS 8/7/2023