Inventory Continues to Increase Amid Modest Median Price Growth and Home Sales Decline

June home sales declined 7.2% from May’s strong showing and were down 11.6% year over year – atypical considering June historically has more sales than May.

Across the 50 metro areas surveyed, inventory rose 6.7% from May and was up 38.1% over June 2023 – similar to May’s year-over-year increase of 39.6%. That equated to 2.1 Months Supply of Inventory compared to last June’s 1.4 months.

The median sales price of $431,000 was $6,000 (1.4%) higher than in May and $19,000 (4.6%) higher than in last June. On average, buyers paid 100% of the list price for the third month in a row following eight months of paying 98-99%.

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Inventory Jumped 40%, Home Prices Increased 5%, Sales Exceed 2023 Pace

In May, both inventory and new listings grew to levels not seen since the second half of 2022.  The number of homes for sale, as surveyed across 53 metro areas, also increased, rising 8.7% over April and 39.6% year over year. And for the third consecutive month, the number of new listings exceeded 2023 levels by double-digit percentages – 15.1% in May, 18.2% in April, and 17.6% in March.

Fueled by the 22-month high in new listings, May home sales grew 10.9% over April and 0.7% over last May. Monthly home sales in 2024 have now exceeded the 2023 monthly sales totals for four of the five months.

The Median Sale Price increased 2.4% over April to $435,000. That was 4.8% higher than May 2023. The close-to-list price ratio remained at the 100% level it reached in April following eight months at 99% or less.

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April, the gateway to what are traditionally the busiest months for home sales, has set the stage nicely with closings increasing 11.2% over March and 9.0% over last April. Sales have increased month over month since February.

At the same time, new listings climbed 6.3% month over month and 18.2% over last year across the 50 metro areas surveyed. That, in turn, boosted the number of homes for sale by 6.3% over March and a whopping 28.8% compared to last April.

The Median Sale Price increased 2.9% over March to $437,000. This is the highest price in over two years and was fueled by buyers’ willingness to pay 100% of the list price, compared to 99% last month and last April.

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Home sales in March increased 21.6% over February while trailing the March activity of a year ago. At the same time, a 20.9% surge in new listings during the month fueled a substantial 7.7% expansion in inventory.

The inventory gains helped expand the supply of homes for sale by 24.2% year over year, setting the stage for the customary peak homebuying season of May and June.

Up 5.1% year over year, the Median Sale Price increased 1.5% from February – the third monthly increase in a row – and returned to $415,000, a figure it last reached last September.

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Home Sales Rise, With Sellers
Getting Almost Full Listing Price

With the annual spring homebuying season coming quickly, home sales ramped up in February and spiked 17.0% from January, with a 2.3% increase from February 2023. Of those sales, buyers paid more. The median home price of $412,000 rose 2.1% from January – and 7.0% year over year. The $27,000 increase from February 2023 reflected that buyers on average were willing to pay 99% of the listing price. 

In a third of the markets of the 50 metros areas surveyed, buyers on average paid 98% or less, while in a quarter of the markets the average buyer paid 100% or more. At the current median sales price, 1% is equivalent to approximately $4,000.

Meanwhile, inventory held relatively steady and dropped just 0.6% from January. Months supply of inventory (1.9) declined slightly from January’s 2.1, but was up from last February’s 1.6, and the number of homes for sale was 10.8% higher than a year ago.

In another indicator of increased demand, homes took an average of 44 days to sell in February – two days faster than January and one day faster than February 2023.

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New Listings Soar Higher as
Spring Ramp-Up Approaches

In what could be a good sign for buyers, the number of newly listed homes in January was a whopping 66.3% higher than in December and 21.5% higher than January 2023 across the 50 metro areas surveyed.

The 21.5% year-over-year increase in new listings reversed a multi-year January trend, as new listings dropped 5.1% from January 2022 to January 2023 and 8.1% from January 2021 to January 2022. The dramatic 66.3% month-to-month increase in new listings was also significantly higher than the past two December-to-January jumps – 39.8% to start 2023 and 24.7% to begin 2022.

The surge in new listings was combined with year-over-year increases in closed sales and inventory, illustrating that January’s housing stats could bode well for the typical spring uptick in home sales this year.

January home sales were 2.5% higher than January 2023, although they were down 19.1% from December, a slightly smaller post-holiday drop than the past two years. January inventory increased 1.7% over January 2023, ending a seven-month streak of year-over-year declines. The median sales price of $405,000 was 5.2% (or $20,000) higher than January 2023 and unchanged from December.

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December 2023 exhibited a traditional end-of-year slowing in housing market activity, punctuated by many similarities to December 2022.

Three metrics showed no change year over year:

• Homes sold were on the market an average of 47 days in both Decembers – seven days longer than in November 2023

• December 2023 sales averaged 98% of the listing price, the same as the prior year and slightly down from 99% in November 2023

• Months’ supply of inventory in both Decembers was 2.5, slightly down from 2.6 in November 2023

Other results included:

• December home sales dropped 7.3% year over year – and 2.3% from November. As in 2022, the number of home sales declined year over year in every month of 2023.

• Inventory slipped just 0.7% from December 2022 while dropping 10.4% from November. Inventory declined year over year each of the last seven months of 2023.

Two metrics made year-over-year gains in December across the 52 metro areas surveyed:

• December’s new listings were up 2.7% year over year while down 24.3% from November.

• The median sold price of $400,000 was 3.9% (or $15,000) higher than December 2022 and 1.2% lower than November.

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Home Prices Ease Amid Declining New Listings, Sales, Inventory

Posting the lowest Median Sales Price in eight months, November home sales dropped from October levels and the number of homes for sale fell slightly.

Indicative of the usual year-end slowdown, home sales in November dropped by 9.8% compared to October and declined 6.5% versus the same period last year. This decline can also be attributed to rising interest rates most of this year and last. Interest rates have decreased over the last two months, which could result in more activity in the market.

The number of homes for sale changed slightly – dropping 1.6% from October and declining 2.6% compared to November 2022.

Across the 52 metro areas surveyed, homes sold for a median price of $405,000, which was $5,000 less than in October but $13,000 higher than in November 2022. New listings, though up 1.5% year over year, were down 19.1% from October.

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Inventory Grows While Declines in Sales, New Listings Soften

Seasonal declines in home sales and new listings softened in October while inventory grew for a seventh consecutive month across the 53 metro areas surveyed. 

Home sales dropped 4.6% from September to October, far less than the 13.5% month-over-month drop in October 2022. New listings also declined 5.0%, which was also less than half of the 11.1% drop from September to October last year.

While there were 6.9% fewer homes on the market year over year, October’s inventory grew 4.6% month over month to continue a streak of monthly increases that began in April.

The median sales price of $410,000 did not budge from September and remained 2.8% above October 2022.

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Inventory Grows for Sixth Straight
Month While Sales Decline

The number of homes on the market grew month over month for a sixth consecutive month in September as sales declined 13.8% from August and 17.0% from a year ago. The 9.3% increase in inventory was the largest month-over-month increase in 14 months. Even so, inventory is 8.6% below September 2022 levels.

Despite the growth in inventory over August 2023, new listings were down 1.8% from August and 7.8% year over year.

With three months left in 2023, the Median Sales Price of $415,000 posted a seasonal decline of 2.4% month over month – last September’s sequential drop was 1.2% – but remained 2.5% higher than last September’s $405,000.

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